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Wednesday, 14 January 2009

Fibonacci Ratios - The Secret To Forex Trading Success

By Richard U. Olson

The mathematician Fibonacci or Leonardo of Pisa in 1202 first published his Fibonacci sequence. In order to calculate the number of pairs of rabbits he would have at the end of a year based on their behavior of breeding, Fibonacci developed this famous sequence of numbers. Forex traders find this type of no-nonsense approach very profitable.

While many think of the Fibonacci sequence as a mathematical abstraction, it is grounded in a real world application. The Fibonacci sequence can be used to predict patterns which would not otherwise be apparent.

So how is the Fibonacci sequence applicable to currency investing? Savvy investors know that there are patterns to the movements of the stock and currency markets which can be seen by studying the past behavior of investors. The market truisms "buy low, sell high" is based on an understanding of these market patterns.

These patterns cannot be seen by a day to day observation of market conditions, but reveal themselves when you step back and take a look at the big picture. Short term fluctuations in the market are nearly impossible to accurately forecast. However, the trends which occur over time most certainly are predictable. Investors of all stripes, including Forex traders have used the Fibonacci sequence to plan their investments and make large profits in the currency exchange markets.

The Fibonacci sequence is a string of numbers with each number being the sum of the two numbers which preceded it. For example, one such string would be 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21 and so on. These numbers are related in several ways. Any given number in a Fibonacci sequence is about 1.618 of its predecessor - the "golden ratio" of the Greek mathematicians.

The most common applications of the Fibonacci sequence for investment purposes are retracements and arcs.

Fibonacci chart technique involves three curved lines drawn for anticipating key resistance and supporting various levels as well as areas of ranging. First drawn is an invisible trendline between the two points of high and low for particular period of time. Next, three intersecting curves are drawn overlapping the trendline at the levels of 38.2, 50, and 61.8 percent according to Fibonacci. When the price of the asset crosses through these key levels, decisions of transaction are made.

Next is the retracement - this is when the movement of a stock or other traded commodity reverses direction; this is a reversal which is stronger than the prevailing trend of the stock's movement. Retracement patterns are looked at closely by investors; a Fibonacci retracement can be used to analyze the odds of a commodity's price having a larger than average retracement before continuing back on the direction it had before reversal. The trendline is typically drawn between two extremes and is divided vertically by the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

Traders use Fibonacci retracements to determine strategic points for placing their transactions, target prices and stop-loss points. There are other tools which use retracement techniques, chief among them Elliott Wave Theory, Gartley patterns and Tirone levels.

The "Fibonacci formula" is used in investing for the simple reason that it works. Forex traders especially seem to find huge success from using it. - 16931

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